Fresh poll shows majority support for Scottish independence: key takeaways

The latest poll from YouGov shows ‘Yes’ in the lead with 53%, with The Times reporting this is “the highest level of support for independence ever recorded by the company”.

The Yes vote for Scottish independence takes its biggest ever lead in a YouGov survey

Yes: 53%
No: 47%

Fieldwork 6-10 Aughttps://t.co/cftdzISi1a pic.twitter.com/PyY7woZAmK

— YouGov (@YouGov) August 12, 2020

This is the fourth poll in a row that shows independence is now backed by the consistent majority of people in Scotland.

Out of ten independence polls since the December 2019 election, seven have showed ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining three, one was a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.

Here’s a brief analysis of what the latest YouGov poll shows – and what it all means.

People are changing their minds – from No to Yes

The largest ever lead for independence recorded by YouGov is partly driven by the large number of people switching from No to Yes, following Scotland being consistently ignored by Westminster and dragged out of the EU against our clearly expressed will.

The YouGov data finds that 30% of those who voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 now say they would vote Yes.

23% of those who voted No in 2014 are now independence supporters – and if we keep convincing even more former No voters, the momentum for independence will be truly unstoppable.

🗓 One year ago, Boris Johnson became the UK Prime Minister.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 And right across Scotland, more and more people are switching from No to Yes.

✍ Join the movement to put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands: https://t.co/1TBOd5HzKz pic.twitter.com/hJ1YaVbhUs

— Yes (@YesScot) July 25, 2020

Nearly half of Labour voters back independence

The astonishing figures from YouGov reveal that 44% of those who voted Labour in the 2019 general election would vote Yes in a Scottish independence referendum.

It’s clear that Richard Leonard must wake up to the fact that huge numbers of his own voters in Scotland back independence.

Their blind refusal to even acknowledge Scotland’s right to choose its own future is not only out of touch with the people of Scotland, but nearly half of Labour’s electorate – and the longer they keep siding with the Tories in denying Scottish democracy, the more people they will bring to the cause of independence.

All age groups under 65 decisively support Yes

The latest data found that 79% of voters under the age of 25 back independence, while 58% of 25-49 year olds would also vote Yes.

Repeating the trend shown in the past few polls, the 50-64 age group now supports independence more than ever – at 53% to 47%.

Meanwhile, the over-65s group – while still backing ‘No’ by 65% to 35%, has gradually moved towards Yes, by 4 points since the YouGov poll in February and by 10 points since January.

The new poll today from @YouGov shows that independence is the preferred option in all age groups besides the over 65s pic.twitter.com/UZDpc4Olwx

— scotland in numbers (@spreadsheetian) August 12, 2020

Over six in ten of previous non-voters now back Yes

Of those who did not vote in either the 2014 independence referendum, nor the 2016 EU referendum, a significant majority – at 61% – said they would vote Yes in the next independence referendum.

It’s clearer than ever that the opportunity to build a fairer, greener, better Scotland with independence is making more people politically engaged and driving people to back our movement.

Support for the SNP is at record levels ahead of the crucial 2021 Holyrood election

YouGov found that 57% of Scotland’s voters say they will back the SNP in the constituency vote, and 47% on the regional list.

The Conservatives are 37 points behind on the constituency vote and 26 points behind on the list – while Labour is trailing in distant third on 14% in both the constituency and list votes.

This amounts to a record level of support for the SNP and would produce the biggest pro-independence majority in the history of devolution – but ahead of the crucial 2021 election, there’s no room for complacency.

We must all work hard to secure the majority that will pave the way for Scotland’s future being in Scotland’s hands.

Latest Holyrood voting intention (6-10 Aug)

SNP – 57% (constituency vote) / 47% (regional/party vote)
Con – 20%/21%
Lab – 14%/14%
Lib Dem – 6%/6%
Green – 1%/6%
Other – 1%/6%https://t.co/cftdzISi1a pic.twitter.com/Bz7XYN3uFD

— YouGov (@YouGov) August 12, 2020

Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly reject Boris Johnson

It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, while Boris Johnson’s approval ratings in Scotland have plummeted to -50.

This is in stark comparison to Nicola Sturgeon’s approval, at +50 – amounting to a 100 point gap between the First Minister and Boris Johnson, and leaving in no doubt that Scotland’s future must be in Scotland’s hands, not those of Boris Johnson.

📺 Professor John Curtice: “We’ve never previously had a consistent series of polls on average putting YES ahead. We are in uncharted waters.”

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland’s future should be in Scotland’s hands, not those of Boris Johnson. https://t.co/1TBOd5pYT1 pic.twitter.com/Ci8oXW12Te

— Yes (@YesScot) July 24, 2020