Majority support for Scottish independence continues to soar

by Yes
Posted on
1 year ago
4 min read

The latest poll, conducted by Ipsos MORI, shows the continued rise in majority support for Scottish independence.

Independence is now backed by a clear majority of people in Scotland, with “Yes” on 56% – 12 points ahead of “No”.

Here’s a brief analysis of how the data breaks down, and what the recent polling trends show.

Momentum is clearly with Yes since the Supreme Court ruling

The Tories and Labour are desperate to deny Scottish democracy and the clear mandate for an independence referendum, despite the clear mandate won in 2021.

This seems to have seriously backfired. The first poll after the Supreme Court ruling, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, has put Yes on 52% – 5 points up.

Now, in the new Ipsos poll, Scottish independence support soared by another 4 points to 56% – the highest it has been for two years.

Every Scottish region now shows majority support for independence

In 2014, just 4 out of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas voted Yes.

In a significant shift, the new Ipsos poll, which asked the question in each of the 8 Scottish parliamentary regions, shows that every single region backs independence by a sizeable margin.

Glasgow (60%) has the highest level of Yes support, with South Scotland (58%) and Mid Scotland and Fife (57%) also noting above-average support for independence.

Majority of Scots want a referendum in this parliamentary term

The SNP and the Greens overwhelmingly won the 2021 Holyrood election on the manifesto promise to hold an independence referendum in the current term of Parliament – and polls clearly show that the UK government shouldn’t stand in the way of that.

According to Ipsos, 52% of respondents back having a referendum in the current term.

Another poll, conducted a few weeks ago across the whole of the UK, shows that 55% of people believe the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold an independence referendum.

In a de-facto referendum, 55% would back pro-independence parties

With the UK government continuing to deny Scottish democracy and the clear mandate for a referendum, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP will treat the next UK general election as a “de-facto referendum”, giving people in Scotland the opportunity to clearly express their view on Scotland’s future.

Responding to a question on how they would vote in a Westminster de-facto referendum, 53% said they would vote SNP, and a further 2% would vote for the Scottish Greens.

That’s a total of 55% support for independence parties, closely matching the 56% Yes result in the poll and yielding a decisive majority.

At least a third of Labour voters back independence

In last week’s poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 37% of those who voted Labour in the 2019 general election support Scottish independence.

The latest Ipsos poll is not far off, with 33% of Labour voters saying they would vote Yes.

And yet, Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar seem determined to ignore the significant proportion of their own voters, instead siding with the Tories in denying Scottish democracy and backing a hard Brexit.

It’s another proof how out of touch Labour has become, putting the current leadership at odds with many senior Labour figures and trade unionists – such as Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford, former Scottish Labour First Minister Henry McLeish, Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham and many more.

All age groups under 55 support Yes by a clear margin

The latest Ipsos Mori polling reveals that a massive 70% of 16-34 year olds would vote Yes.

Among the 16-24 age group, this rises even higher to 73%. This is significant, as studies of the 2014 referendum show that 16-24 year olds narrowly voted No in 2014.

In the 35-54 age group, support for independence mirrors the national average – with Yes at 56%.

What’s perhaps most noteworthy is the 45% support for independence among the over-65s, the highest result for that age group in any poll in years.

There is a clear mandate for a referendum – it’s time Westminster stops denying democracy

The Scottish Parliament election in May 2021 resulted in:

  • The highest ever number of votes for pro-independence parties (SNP + Greens)
  • The highest ever vote share for pro-independence parties
  • Increased majority of pro-independence MSPs
  • A pro-independence SNP-Green majority government, elected on a manifesto promise to hold indyref2

In 2011, the SNP won 45.4% on the constituency vote, which was accepted as an unquestionable mandate for a referendum.

According to that precedent, the current mandate is even more solid. In 2021, the SNP won 47.7% on the constituency vote, and pro-independence parties won over 50% on the regional vote.

And yet, Westminster’s denial of democracy exposes a double standard. In 2015, David Cameron used a 36.9% vote as a mandate to deliver an EU referendum, and in 2019, Boris Johnson used a 43.6% result to deliver Brexit – which Scotland, of course, overwhelmingly voted against.

Get involved and help win Scotland’s independence

It’s time Westminster stops denying democracy.

Scotland has the right to decide our own future – and that choice is up to all people who live in Scotland, not UK governments that we consistently reject.

The power to shape that better future is in your hands. If you haven’t yet, pledge your support for independence, share it with 5 friends, and see all the ways you can help.