Another poll, conducted by JL Partners for POLITICO, confirmed that Scottish independence has a firm and sustained majority support in Scotland – with Yes on 56%.
As the eleventh poll in a row to put ‘Yes’ in a decisive lead, it’s clear that majority support for independence is no longer a trend, but now the settled will of the people of Scotland.
Here’s our brief analysis of the latest polling – looking at how the data breaks down, what drives the rise in support, and what it all means.
Independence is backed by a consistent majority of people in Scotland
Out of 14 polls conducted since the December 2019 general election, 11 had ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining three, one was a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.
Independence support has been sustained for a record time in the polls, making it clear that momentum is firmly on the side of independence.
In the run-up to the crucial 2021 Holyrood election, Boris Johnson’s desperate attempts to deny Scotland’s right to decide our future are becoming utterly unsustainable.
🏴 A new poll in @politico has support for independence at 56%.
📈 The Yes vote is surging – this is the 11th poll in a row showing support for Scotland’s independence in the lead.
— Yes (@YesScot) October 30, 2020
Boris Johnson and Brexit are fuelling the surge to Yes
The JL Partners poll finds that a widespread dislike of Boris Johnson is among the key factors fuelling the rising support for independence – with 79% of swing voters in Scotland agreeing that “Boris Johnson is not the leader I want to have for my country”.
Other persuasive arguments included a hard Brexit – which Scotland firmly rejected in 2016 and three elections thereafter – as well as Tory austerity and the UK government’s poor handling of the COVID pandemic.
🏴 Support for independence at 56%.
✅ 11th consecutive poll putting Yes ahead.
💪🏼 @theSNP outperforming the UK government on schools, the NHS & the economy.
— Emily Mackintosh (@EMackintosh1) October 30, 2020
People oppose Westminster’s anti-democratic rejection of Scotland’s right to choose
The latest poll shows that the UK government’s opposition to Scotland’s right to choose is proving increasingly unpopular – with most swing voters (53%) opposing Westminster’s anti-democratic moves to block another referendum, with only 28% in support.
Support for Scotland’s independence continues to grow – with another new poll showing a majority (56%).
This is about the whole of Scotland – all of us – determining the future we want as a country. Let’s continue to persuade with respect and move forward together #IndyRef2 #Yes pic.twitter.com/ys4ltotjqa
— Ian Blackford (@Ianblackford_MP) October 30, 2020
Labour voters are at odds with Richard Leonard over Scotland’s right to choose
As more and more polls show clear majority support for independence, Richard Leonard is still intent on denying Scottish people their say. Labour is increasingly out of touch with voters and trade unions, as the STUC is set to back a second independence referendum at its congress.
The overwhelming majority of Labour voters (59%) believe that an independence referendum should be the matter for the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster.
What’s more, several polls found that nearly half of Labour’s voters support independence – 43% according to the fresh JL Partners poll, with recent YouGov and Panelbase polls reporting 44% and 42% respectively.
🔎 Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale says a referendum is coming: “If you look at current independence polling, there has been a considerable shift from No to Yes.
The arguments around economic security which made them vote No last time have been quashed by Brexit.” pic.twitter.com/BhpG7eyyKr
— Yes (@YesScot) September 8, 2020
Support for independence is rising among all age groups
The new poll reveals an astonishing 74% of under-35s, and 58% of 35-54 year-olds, would now vote Yes.
While there is still work to be done in reaching out and persuading the over-65s, their support for independence has moved by an average of 12 points since January to 40%.
JL Partners Scottish Independence Poll (30/10/20; fw 21/9):
Should Scotland be an independent country?
% YES by age:
— Paul Middleton (@ProfPMiddleton) October 30, 2020
Yes is in the lead in 6 out of 8 Scottish regions
According to the fresh poll, the majority of respondents in six out of eight regions of Scotland – Glasgow (68%), Central (61%), North East Scotland (60%), Lothian (57%), West Scotland (56%) and Mid Scotland & Fife (53%) – back independence by decisive margins.
In 2014, just 4 out of 32 council areas and only one whole region (Glasgow) voted Yes. This polling highlights just how far support for independence has moved, and that momentum is firmly on our side.
🔎 The @JLPartnersPolls Scotland poll shows majority support for independence in 6/8 Scottish regions.
📈 It climbed by over 15 points in 2014 ‘No’ voting regions like Lothian and North East.
North East: 60%
Mid Scot & Fife: 53% pic.twitter.com/IZwRMLf09B
— Olaf Stando (@olafdoesstuff) October 30, 2020
Voters say that Scotland and the rest of the UK are on different paths
It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have more confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, as the poll found the majority of respondents believing the Yes campaign is winning arguments on the key issues – including public services, the economy, the cost of living, the democratic deficit, and the EU.
63% say that Westminster doesn’t care about Scotland’s interests, while 64% said that Scotland is heading in a different direction to the UK.
Together, we can transform Scotland with independence and build a fairer, greener, more equal and more prosperous country.
💻 We’ve launched a new Yes campaigning platform.
🏴 Our movement stands on the shoulders of giants.
👨 👩 It’s time for independence. But only you can make it happen.
— Yes (@YesScot) January 31, 2020