Momentum is firmly with independence as eleventh poll in a row shows Yes majority

by Olaf Stando
Posted on
4 years ago
4 min read

Another poll, conducted by JL Partners for POLITICO, confirmed that Scottish independence has a firm and sustained majority support in Scotland – with Yes on 56%.

As the eleventh poll in a row to put ‘Yes’ in a decisive lead, it’s clear that majority support for independence is no longer a trend, but now the settled will of the people of Scotland.

Here’s our brief analysis of the latest polling – looking at how the data breaks down, what drives the rise in support, and what it all means.

Independence is backed by a consistent majority of people in Scotland

Out of 14 polls conducted since the December 2019 general election, 11 had ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining three, one was a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.

Independence support has been sustained for a record time in the polls, making it clear that momentum is firmly on the side of independence.

In the run-up to the crucial 2021 Holyrood election, Boris Johnson’s desperate attempts to deny Scotland’s right to decide our future are becoming utterly unsustainable.

Boris Johnson and Brexit are fuelling the surge to Yes

The JL Partners poll finds that a widespread dislike of Boris Johnson is among the key factors fuelling the rising support for independence – with 79% of swing voters in Scotland agreeing that “Boris Johnson is not the leader I want to have for my country”.

Other persuasive arguments included a hard Brexit – which Scotland firmly rejected in 2016 and three elections thereafter – as well as Tory austerity and the UK government’s poor handling of the COVID pandemic.

People oppose Westminster’s anti-democratic rejection of Scotland’s right to choose

The latest poll shows that the UK government’s opposition to Scotland’s right to choose is proving increasingly unpopular – with most swing voters (53%) opposing Westminster’s anti-democratic moves to block another referendum, with only 28% in support.

Labour voters are at odds with Richard Leonard over Scotland’s right to choose

As more and more polls show clear majority support for independence, Richard Leonard is still intent on denying Scottish people their say. Labour is increasingly out of touch with voters and trade unions, as the STUC is set to back a second independence referendum at its congress.

The overwhelming majority of Labour voters (59%) believe that an independence referendum should be the matter for the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster.

What’s more, several polls found that nearly half of Labour’s voters support independence – 43% according to the fresh JL Partners poll, with recent YouGov and Panelbase polls reporting 44% and 42% respectively.

Support for independence is rising among all age groups

The new poll reveals an astonishing 74% of under-35s, and 58% of 35-54 year-olds, would now vote Yes.

While there is still work to be done in reaching out and persuading the over-65s, their support for independence has moved by an average of 12 points since January to 40%.

Yes is in the lead in 6 out of 8 Scottish regions

According to the fresh poll, the majority of respondents in six out of eight regions of Scotland – Glasgow (68%), Central (61%), North East Scotland (60%), Lothian (57%), West Scotland (56%) and Mid Scotland & Fife (53%) – back independence by decisive margins.

In 2014, just 4 out of 32 council areas and only one whole region (Glasgow) voted Yes. This polling highlights just how far support for independence has moved, and that momentum is firmly on our side.

Voters say that Scotland and the rest of the UK are on different paths

It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have more confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, as the poll found the majority of respondents believing the Yes campaign is winning arguments on the key issues – including public services, the economy, the cost of living, the democratic deficit, and the EU.

63% say that Westminster doesn’t care about Scotland’s interests, while 64% said that Scotland is heading in a different direction to the UK.

Together, we can transform Scotland with independence and build a fairer, greener, more equal and more prosperous country.