New poll: a clear majority of people in Scotland back independence

by Yes
Posted on
3 years ago
4 min read

The latest poll by Ipsos MORI shows that Scottish independence is now backed by a clear majority of people in Scotland, with Yes ahead on 55%.

This brings independence support back to the levels it was consistently at in the summer of 2020 and early 2021.

Here’s a brief analysis of how the data breaks down and what the recent polling trends show.

Majority of Scots want a referendum in this term of Parliament

Polls make it clear that Boris Johnson’s Tory government should not stand in the way of a referendum on Scotland’s future.

The Times/YouGov poll from November 2021 poll shows that with undecideds excluded, 53% of people want a referendum to take place in this term of the Scottish Parliament.

This also reflects a recent Panelbase poll, conducted earlier in November, which showed a 54% support for a referendum within this term.

There’s a clear mandate for a referendum

The Scottish Parliament election in May 2021 resulted in:

  • The highest ever number of pro-independence votes (SNP + Greens)
  • The highest ever pro-independence vote share
  • Increased majority of pro-independence MSPs
  • A pro-independence SNP-Green government, with both parties pledging to hold indyref2

In 2011, the SNP won 45.4% on the constituency vote, which was accepted as an unquestionable mandate for a referendum.

According to that precedent, the current mandate is even more solid. In 2021, the SNP won 47.7% on the constituency vote, and pro-independence parties won over 50% on the regional vote.

All age groups under 54 support independence

The latest Ipsos MORI polling reveals that almost three quarters – 71% – of 18-34 year olds would vote Yes.

There is also a very clear majority support for independence among 35-44 year olds – 63% – and 45-54 year olds, at 58%.

Among 55-64 year olds, the numbers are neck and neck, with Yes at 49% and No at 51%.

6 out of 8 Scottish regions show a majority for Yes

According to the latest Ipsos poll, only one Scottish region has a majority for No – the South of Scotland.

6 out of 8 have majority support for independence, with the North East evenly split between Yes and No.

Highlands and Islands (65%) and Glasgow (64%) have the highest levels, with above-average Yes support also in Central Scotland (59%) and Lothian (56%).

In 2014, just 4 out of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas voted Yes.

Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly reject Boris Johnson

After the Tory sleaze and corruption scandal, a chaotic Brexit, a cost of living crisis and a rambling speech about Peppa Pig, Boris Johnson’s approval ratings in Scotland have plummeted to a record low.

According to Ipsos MORI, 80% of people are now dissatisfied, with only 16% satisfied. That’s a net approval rating of -64.

In stark contrast, Nicola Sturgeon has an approval rating of +20, with 58% of people expressing satisfaction with the First Minister.

Democracy must, and will, prevail

There’s a clear majority support for independence, and a clear mandate for an independence referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon has recently set out that the Scottish Government has re-started the work on a detailed case for independence, and Covid-permitting, the campaign will begin in earnest in 2022.

The Scottish Government intends to hold a referendum in 2023, and as STV’s senior political correspondent said: “It is not credible” for politicians to deny Scotland’s right to choose.

Get involved and help to win Scotland’s independence

Watch our latest film, setting out what the independence debate is and is not about, and why Scotland can do so much better free from Westminster rule.

Share it with 5 friends and family, and help reach hundreds of thousands of people across Scotland.

If you haven’t already, sign the independence pledge to show your support.

And check out all the informative resources on the News page, infographics, videos, as well as our 8-page leaflet which you can download, print and deliver to the doorsteps.