The recent poll by Savanta ComRes confirms that independence is now consistently backed by a firm majority of people in Scotland.
The latest poll is the 18th in a row to put independence in the lead, with ‘Yes’ at 57%.
Here’s a brief analysis of the latest trends, how the data breaks down, and what it all means as we head towards the most important election in Scotland’s history.
A clear and consistent majority for Yes
Out of 23 polls conducted in 2020, 19 had ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining four, two were a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.
The first poll of 2021 confirms that the majority independence support is not a blip or a passing trend – but the firmly established position of the Scottish electorate.
🗳️ The new poll by @SavantaComRes is the 18th in a row to show majority support for Scottish independence.
— Yes (@YesScot) January 14, 2021
Majority of Scots want a referendum in the next Parliament
A clear majority of voters in Scotland believe that Boris Johnson’s Tory government can no longer stand in the way of a referendum on Scotland’s future.
The new ComRes poll found that 52% of voters think there should be a referendum on Scotland’s future in the next Parliament.
The figures also confirm that only 16% think there should never be a referendum – showing just how out of touch the Tories and Labour are with Scottish public opinion.
52% of Scots want a referendum in the next five years.
Only 16% say there should never be another referendum. pic.twitter.com/LGFK5xFDeP
— Lloyd Melville (@LloydAMelville) January 15, 2021
Almost three in four of under-35s now back independence
The latest ComRes poll reveals that 72% of 16-34 year olds would currently vote Yes – as well as an astonishing 66% of 35-54 year olds, the highest ever recorded by a ComRes poll.
Support among 55-64 year olds went up by 4 points, from 45% to 49%.
Among the over-65s, ‘Yes’ support has also increased since the previous ComRes poll – rising from 35% to 37%.
🏴 Across Scotland, more and more minds are changing from No to Yes.
🤝 Together, we can make Scotland the country we all know it can be.
👋 If you voted No and now back Yes, get in touch at firstname.lastname@example.org pic.twitter.com/TM6P71Yyx9
— Yes (@YesScot) January 15, 2021
Labour voters continue shifting towards ‘Yes’ – with over 40% supporting an independent Scotland
Following Richard Leonard’s resignation, the Scottish Labour leadership contenders must finally acknowledge that Labour’s current anti-referendum platform is increasingly at odds with their own electorate.
ComRes found that 42% of 2019 Labour voters would now vote Yes.
What’s more, the latest poll that asked the question found that the overwhelming majority of Labour voters – 59% – believe an independence referendum should be the matter for the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster.
🔎 Scottish Labour ensured the Tories could govern Scotland for 6 more years after campaigning alongside them in #indyref – and Scottish Labour’s MP said they’d do it again even if it destroys them.
🥀 They’ve now said they’ll oppose a referendum until at least 2026. pic.twitter.com/ZZhsZ8pvtj
— Yes (@YesScot) November 18, 2020
A clear majority of previous non-voters now back Yes
Of those who did not vote in either the 2014 independence referendum, or the 2016 EU referendum, a significant majority – 64% and 62% respectively – said they would now vote Yes in the next independence referendum.
It’s clearer than ever that the opportunity to build a fairer, greener, better Scotland with independence driving people towards our movement and increasing political engagement.
6 out of 8 Scottish regions back independence
According to the fresh Savanta ComRes poll, the majority of respondents in six out of eight regions of Scotland – Glasgow (69%), Mid Scotland & Fife (63%), Highlands and Islands (61%), Central Scotland (60%), Lothian (58%) and West Scotland (54%) back independence by decisive margins.
In 2014, just 4 out of 32 council areas voted Yes. This polling confirms that Yes has become a majority view far beyond the areas that originally backed independence – and that momentum is firmly on our side.
🌍 Big enough, smart enough, wealthy enough – Scotland has what it takes to thrive with independence.
🏴 Let's put Scotland's future in Scotland's hands, so we can become a fairer, greener, more prosperous country.pic.twitter.com/YMhlgQjP7T
— Yes (@YesScot) December 11, 2020
Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly reject Boris Johnson
It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have more confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, while Boris Johnson’s approval ratings in Scotland have plummeted to -43 – despite a well-funded, full-time unit to ‘save the Union’ now working at Downing Street.
This is in stark comparison to Nicola Sturgeon’s approval ratings – who, according to the polling, is once again the most popular politician anywhere in the UK.
People in Scotland want the chance to choose a better future, as an independent country inside the EU. Boris Johnson’s Trump-style attempts to deny democracy simply won’t stand.
🗳 The Tories don’t think the people of Scotland deserve a say on their future.
— Yes (@YesScot) January 14, 2021