Fresh polls confirm independence is now the ‘settled will’ in Scotland

by Olaf Stando
Posted on
4 years ago
4 min read

The recent poll by Savanta ComRes confirms that independence is now consistently backed by a firm majority of people in Scotland.

The latest poll is the 18th in a row to put independence in the lead, with ‘Yes’ at 57%.

Here’s a brief analysis of the latest trends, how the data breaks down, and what it all means as we head towards the most important election in Scotland’s history.

A clear and consistent majority for Yes

Out of 23 polls conducted in 2020, 19 had ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining four, two were a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.

The first poll of 2021 confirms that the majority independence support is not a blip or a passing trend – but the firmly established position of the Scottish electorate.

Majority of Scots want a referendum in the next Parliament

A clear majority of voters in Scotland believe that Boris Johnson’s Tory government can no longer stand in the way of a referendum on Scotland’s future.

The new ComRes poll found that 52% of voters think there should be a referendum on Scotland’s future in the next Parliament.

The figures also confirm that only 16% think there should never be a referendum – showing just how out of touch the Tories and Labour are with Scottish public opinion.

Almost three in four of under-35s now back independence

The latest ComRes poll reveals that 72% of 16-34 year olds would currently vote Yes – as well as an astonishing 66% of 35-54 year olds, the highest ever recorded by a ComRes poll.

Support among 55-64 year olds went up by 4 points, from 45% to 49%.

Among the over-65s, ‘Yes’ support has also increased since the previous ComRes poll – rising from 35% to 37%.

Labour voters continue shifting towards ‘Yes’ – with over 40% supporting an independent Scotland

Following Richard Leonard’s resignation, the Scottish Labour leadership contenders must finally acknowledge that Labour’s current anti-referendum platform is increasingly at odds with their own electorate.

ComRes found that 42% of 2019 Labour voters would now vote Yes.

What’s more, the latest poll that asked the question found that the overwhelming majority of Labour voters – 59% – believe an independence referendum should be the matter for the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster.

This view was recently endorsed by the STUC backing Scotland’s right to choose, and echoed by some Labour MSPs including Alex Rowley and leadership contender Monica Lennon.

A clear majority of previous non-voters now back Yes

Of those who did not vote in either the 2014 independence referendum, or the 2016 EU referendum, a significant majority – 64% and 62% respectively – said they would now vote Yes in the next independence referendum.

It’s clearer than ever that the opportunity to build a fairer, greener, better Scotland with independence driving people towards our movement and increasing political engagement.

6 out of 8 Scottish regions back independence

According to the fresh Savanta ComRes poll, the majority of respondents in six out of eight regions of Scotland – Glasgow (69%), Mid Scotland & Fife (63%), Highlands and Islands (61%), Central Scotland (60%), Lothian (58%) and West Scotland (54%) back independence by decisive margins.

In 2014, just 4 out of 32 council areas voted Yes. This polling confirms that Yes has become a majority view far beyond the areas that originally backed independence – and that momentum is firmly on our side.

Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly reject Boris Johnson

It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have more confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, while Boris Johnson’s approval ratings in Scotland have plummeted to -43 – despite a well-funded, full-time unit to ‘save the Union’ now working at Downing Street.

This is in stark comparison to Nicola Sturgeon’s approval ratings – who, according to the polling, is once again the most popular politician anywhere in the UK.

People in Scotland want the chance to choose a better future, as an independent country inside the EU. Boris Johnson’s Trump-style attempts to deny democracy simply won’t stand.