Six polls in a row confirm consistent majority for independence: analysis

by Olaf Stando
Posted on
4 years ago
4 min read

Two fresh polls, by Savanta ComRes and Panelbase, confirmed the solid and rising majority support for independence – with ‘Yes’ clearly in the lead at 54% and 55% respectively.

Six polls in a row since June now confirm that independence is the sustained majority view in Scotland – and with Yes at 55%, the Panelbase poll found the result of the 2014 independence referendum has been reversed.

Here’s our brief analysis of the latest polling – how the data breaks down, and what it all means.

Independence is backed by a consistent majority of people in Scotland

Out of 12 polls conducted since the December 2019 general election, 9 had ‘Yes’ in the lead – while of the remaining three, one was a dead heat and the other two only had ‘No’ leading by 1%.

With independence support now sustained for a record time in the polls, it’s now clear that this is not just a trend, but the established position of the Scottish electorate.

The momentum is solidly on the pro-independence side, and Boris Johnson’s desperate attempts to deny Scotland’s right to decide our future are becoming utterly unsustainable.

Richard Leonard is determined to deny Scottish democracy – contrary to the majority of Labour voters

On the day when two polls showed clear majority support for independence, Richard Leonard doubled down on his anti-democratic position – pledging in a TV interview to stand on an anti-referendum platform in 2021.

That’s despite the overwhelming majority of Labour voters – 59% – believing that an independence referendum should be the matter for the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster (Panelbase, 1-5 June 2020).

What’s more, several polls found that nearly half of Labour’s voters support independence – 44% according to last week’s YouGov poll, and 42% reported by Panelbase (12-18 August).

Labour’s out-of-touch position is clear: every vote for Labour in the 2021 election will be used as an attempt to deny Scotland its democratic voice.

Support for independence is rising among all age groups

The Savanta ComRes poll reveals an astonishing 80% of under-25s back independence, while 71% of 25-34 year-olds and 60% of 35-54 year-olds would also vote Yes.

While we still have a lot of work to do in convincing the most elderly age group – the over-65s – their support for Yes has, on average, moved up by 10 points since January to around 35%.

A clear majority of previous non-voters now back Yes

Of those who did not vote in either the 2014 independence referendum, nor the 2016 EU referendum, a significant majority – at 61% – said they would vote Yes in the next independence referendum (YouGov, 6-10 August).

This is also confirmed by Panelbase, where 55% of those who did not vote in 2014 would now vote Yes.

It’s clearer than ever that the opportunity to build a fairer, greener, better Scotland with independence is making more people politically engaged and driving people towards our movement.

Yes is in the lead in 6 out of 8 Scottish regions

According to the fresh Savanta ComRes poll, the majority of respondents in six out of eight regions of Scotland – Central (57%), Glasgow (60%), Highlands and Islands (58%), Lothian (57%), North East Scotland (61%) and South Scotland (52%) – back independence by decisive margins.

In 2014, just 4 out of 32 council areas voted Yes. This polling confirms that Yes has become a majority view far beyond the areas that originally backed independence – and that momentum is firmly on our side.

The disastrous Tory Brexit is causing more and more people to switch from No to Yes

With Scotland consistently ignored by Westminster and dragged out of the EU against our clearly expressed will, significant numbers of people are switching over to the Yes camp – driven by the vision of an independent Scotland at the heart of Europe.

YouGov found that 30% of those who voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 would now vote Yes.

Meanwhile, Savanta ComRes showed 27% of 2014 ‘No’ voters are now independence supporters – with YouGov and Panelbase putting that at 23%.

The more people we keep convincing and the more No voters we engage with, the stronger our position will become. If you haven’t yet – get involved.

Scotland’s voters overwhelmingly reject Boris Johnson

It’s now clearer than ever that people in Scotland have more confidence in Scotland’s ability to govern itself, while Boris Johnson’s approval ratings in Scotland have plummeted to -54 (YouGov, 6-10 August) – recorded after his fly-in visit in a bid to ‘save the Union’.

This is in stark comparison to Nicola Sturgeon’s approval, at +50, the highest percentage for any politician – leaving in no doubt that Scotland’s future must be in Scotland’s hands, not those of Boris Johnson.